Metal Vs Miners

Silver Miners (SIL) broke out a 2 months Head & Shoulders bottom in mid January signaling that a reversal of trend was in place. Problem is Silver metal (SLV) did not confirm the pattern or the reversal in that case, instead the metal continues to trade in a tight range rectangle. A continued drop in equities in general plus a breakdown of Silver from its rectangle could spell trouble for SIL. A further sign of weakness is the throwback of SIL to test the H&S bottom neckline at 11.80.

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silvvsminers

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Emerging-Market-Currencies


All Aboard The Orient Express

Orient Express Hotels (OEH) is in a 3-months consolidation pattern. The top level of the box corresponds to a resistance level back in 2008, that pushed the stock down 50%. So its obvious that the current box would be significant either way UP (continuation pattern) or DOWN.

-4Q results on Feb 27/a

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How Over Confidence In Trading Is Deadly

Its Sunday afternoon and I am bored. I open my charts software to find a stock to trade next week. While flipping through my charts i find a perfect Head & shoulders bottom that is about to break out. I make a note of it and decide to buy it upon breakout, risking 1% of my portfolio. I go out see some friends for the rest of the day.

Monday morning and I am ready to take the position only IF the stock breaks out on a closing basis. I take a quick look mid day and decide not to look again until 15 minutes before the close. It almost 20 minutes until the close, I look at the chart and it has broken out Perfect!. I put my order and buy the stock 5 min before the close. I now have a position and I goto sleep.

Its Tuesday morning, I left work early so what should I do?

Yes! Why not check on my stock?, well its not up much on 2 cents..oh well give it some time..

I will look at some news related to the stock..Wow some interesting news that sounds bullish..

I take a look at the sector and most stocks are up YTD Nice!

I call a couple of traders to ask their opinion and they compliment me on my position! Great news!.

The market closes that day with my stock down 2%, very close to my stop loss.

Now what? I am very confident in my stock news/technicals/friends/sector all in my favor, I will lower my stop loss and risk 2% (doubling my initial risk)

Its Wednesday mid day and my stock is down another 1%. Technically the stock has made a hard retest into the pattern and made it null. But I forget about technical analysis and focus on all the positive news more every other place. I look at twitter and find others recommending it as a good buy. I check out George Soros portfolio and bingo! he owns the same stock!! I decide to lower my stop again and risk 3% (Triple my initial risk).

By the end of the closing day my stop loss triggered and as a result of over-confidence I successfully managed to triple of my loss and have to deal with all the negative emotions for the next week or two.

So what happened here? Although i selected and assessed my trade through technical analysis, I managed the trade emotionally and through outside forces such as peers/news/traders i dont know all of which are considered noise.

Moral: Dont get under the illusion that more information=accuracy. You will never have all info, and even if you did, you will never analyze it correctly and even if you did interpret it correctly, you will never know the market reaction!


Shining Metal Play

Penny stock Golden Star Resources (GSS) has been saved by a support line from 2008, three times in the last seventh months. It has completed a small double bottom pattern by breaking through 0.57. Next resistance level is at 0.85, which if broken completes a larger basing pattern opening the way to an implied target of $1.25.

 

gssw

 

 

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A Possible Top In Trash

Waste Connections (WCN) is about to complete a 7 months symmetrical Head & shoulders top. A close below 41 is needed to complete the pattern. Implied target is $36.

 

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QIHU Locked In

The bulls & bears are in a battle on QIHU (QIHU) as it has been trading in an interesting range since late Aug 2013, so its almost 5 months now.  The bulls are buyers at 77 and bears are sellers at 95. Who do you think will win ?

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